Let The Race Begin

As the raps win our hearts and commitments back with probably their best game of the season, the question simply becomes, push or tank?

Fans rest assured that making the playoff's is not a fantasy, it is definitely a challenge but very attainable. The true question for teams debating whether to make a push or not, is what is the motive? With the added variable of whether it is financially worth it to make a playoff run or trade away contracts, the race definitely gets more interesting. So despite the similar records, lets take a closer look at who really is and should be in this race.

The Bucks:
You truly have to wonder what's the point of making the playoffs for them. Their market has definitely shrunk due to the crisis and although playoffs will probably sell out, what can two games in their stadium really do for their profits. The Bucks roster is also not losing that much in the offseason with the key questions really being whether to bring back Charlie or Sessions and given that they are restricted, at this point they really don't have to prove anything to their players. It's definitely nice to make the playoffs, but they might be better off next year getting a nice pick and perhaps trading Jefferson for a more defensive focused SF. I'd have to say the Bucks whether they want to or not, can't make the playoffs but the smart thing would be to not even try.

The Knicks: The Knicks are the most unique team in this race because for them, the outcome really doesn't matter. After trading their best two players, it's pretty clear that everything is on 2010 and anything else is just gravy. Everything they do in the next two years is going to be focussed on signaling to fa's of 2010. With the interest of attracting talent and being able to afford to, again it might be simply smarter to get a nice pick who will sign a lower contract and not be such a hindrance on the cap. Then again, making the playoffs also sends a signal to these FA's that this team has talent, great coaching and a key FA or two could push them over the top. We all know how that value played into the equation for Brand despite how the actual situation panned out. The only question really is although it sends a signal of talent and chemistry, what is the practical use when nobody knows who of the Knicks will be there come 2010. This really is the hardest team to read but I have to think in the interest of keeping small contracts, cheep rookies and value trades so they can keep Robinson and Lee, the lottery is the way to go. With their difficult second half schedule, they may not really have a choice in the matter anyways.

The Bulls: This is the one team in this race that has a clear goal and desire and NEED to make the playoffs. With such an abundance of young talent, the last thing they need is another young draft pick. It's time they put their talent together, make the playoffs and the necessary trade to bring in Bosh, O'Neal, Boozer, Stoudamire or Wallace. With a great basketball market, they are less encumbered by the economy and making the playoffs will definitely have a much higher value in development and selling point over saving a few bucks. If I were them however, I would wait till the offseason to decide about Hinrich or Nocioni. With the improved play of Thomas, he may be able to fill their whole at PF and the team can instead consider trading Hughes, Thabo or Gooden for a good big man and have a solid big man rotation instead of a stellar one. Combined with their fabulous small man rotation, they truly are simply one big man away from contending. I've said it so many times, but Toronto is one of the few teams who has the goods to get some solid pieces from the Bulls but make both teams better.

The Pacers: Why bother writing about the Pacer. Their better than last year, other than that, not much else to say. Some nice random wins, a great player in Granger but they rely too much on a three they don't shoot so well and their lack of post presence is going to prevent them from being able to make a run. This years lottery will be pretty interesting because so many teams are going to have similar odds and any order can really show up. The Pacers need a young post big man and it all honesty, the draft is probably their best option. Whether they use the draft or package it in a trade, it is still their best option. They don't have the market or the franchise power at this point to really attract quality bigs and their really aren't that many post bigs on the market besides Boozer.

The Bobcats: I like to call the difficulty in predicting the Bobacts the Brown effect. Who knows who will play, who will be there, who won't be injured, who will be in the dog house. One thing I've noticed however is that he has a specific taste in player and knows who they are. When that richardson trade went down, I thought it was a steal for the underperforming Bell and Diaw but lo and behold, they are thriving under brown. Meanwhile, Radmonovic looks like he did in his seattle days with a great debut game. With Brown at the helm, and Jordan in the back, you know this team wants to finally make the playoffs but barring another trade, which is probably likely, I think without Wallace and a bench, they will find it extremely difficult to make a run in an sf loaded conference and will probably end up just missing the playoffs. They may even get as far as losing because of a head to head matchup.

The Nets: This has got to be the suprise team of the year. With a two man team,a captain with motivation issues and almost no other significant talent or threats, nobody expected the Nets to contend for anything except the first pick. As I mentioned in a previous post however, the Nets play the season like most teams play the game, with a series of runs. Ironically most of them start after beating the Raptors but unforunately for them, our matchups are done. Being a young team, they will need to get some big road wins to help spur their momentum but with a tough schedule and many teams positioning for a run, this seems unlikely. They caught the league by suprise early on and I think most teams know what to expect from them. The x factor will be Lopez, if he becomes a 15-10 player for the rest of the stretch, it could be just enough to squeeze them in. Unfortunately, it looks more likely that some of their vets, Carter included will be moved by the deadline for young picks an players which will surely take them out of the running.

The Raptors: So many believe that the Spurs game was O'Neal's last as a Raptor. Honestly, I don't know what to think of this. I liked O'Neal, I thought he was very professional and sacrificed for the team. Not to mention, he did a great job on TD, something we can never usually say about a Raptor. Personally I'd rather see Bosh go for some solid players and keep O'Neal. I like having a big play in the key but unfortunately he may be just too old and injured to gamble on. I definitely would have rather had him in his prime than Bosh. My only hesitation to make a move now is that the win over the Spurs could have some great momemtum and with another roster change, we may lose a lot of that. The only exception may be if we do in fact get Marion, a player who can thrive without really knowing the system and doesn't need plays for himself. Anyone else could really shift our progress though. The Raptors to me are the second most likely team to grab the 8th spot behind the Bulls. Primarily because the break comes at a good time to rest nagging injuries, the undermanned games have given a chance for players like Kapono, Graham to mature, find their role and it will definitely give them confidence and greater ability when we are full strength. Combine this with perhaps the easiest ending schedule in the NBA and the Raps are in a good position. The only thing that could hurt us is that we are behind in a lot of head to head matchups with other teams in the race so we definitely have to get our act together quick. A tied record won't be good enough.

Forget Trading Bosh, Whose Going To Steal Him?

It’s every general managers worst nightmare, a talented individual, leaving without anything in return. Unfortunately, in some cases, whether it be hesitation to pull the trigger, a lack of cap, or an economic recession (hint hint), players often leave to where the grass is greener.


I’m sure many of you have at least once read one of Paul Johnson’s “The Five”. I remembered reading his article on the top five FA’s for the famous 2010 offseason. This got me thinking, forget the best five, any fool can recognize the best names of the NBA, lets talk about where they will go! Who has a realistic chance of stealing a franchise player, whether it be this summer, or the next.


Before I delve into it, there are a few variables to consider, but for the most part, here are the key deciding factors, whose on contract, both staff and players, what city do you call home, ownership, and of course, the availability of money and how much is really available after you resign part of your core . Look no further than Portland, many of its contracts will run off the books prior to the best FA crop in history, but how much of that money will go to keeping their core together. Finally, of course these should be taken with a grain of salt, who knows what could happen in the next month, who knows what can happen at any time really, a bad trade there, a critical injury, anything can happen.


So here it is, the top five “thieves” on the market.


1. Dallas
With all this talk of New York clearing cap, teams struggling to shed contracts Dallas’s positioning for a great FA haul have largely been kept secret. Perhaps because in the media, they are just the team with an enigmatic owner who gave up a youthful all star for a quick win right now fix but to players, this may be the most attractive option out there. How many players out there do you think feel the frustration knowing that their owners refuse to spend the money that breeds success. With Cuban, you may get someone who is perhaps too involved, but at least you know that you have someone who values winning as much as you do, someone who feels the stings of losses as much as you do. And moving on past ownership, you can find comfort in a great coaching staff and a solid core. The opportunity to know you can make a run alongside an already potent duo in Nowitzki and the JET should be appeal enough. Raptor fans watch out for Dallas. Even if the Raptors made it to the second round this year and the next, the chance to play for a team dedicated to success, 2 proven players and in front of your home crowd may be simply too much to pass up on.


2. Detroit
Detroit may be in the most unfortunate situation of all the NBA franchises. Why? Because they have the talent, the GM savvy but perhaps, not the money. I have to believe that Detroit’s ability to play in the market will really depend on how the recovery of the larger market goes. With a city plagued by the suffering automobile industry, they really can’t be that secure in their financial stability. With an already commendable core of RIP, Prince, Maxiell and I’d have to assume a resigned Stuckey, they may be so talented that they may not need a marquee signing. But with the cap relief from Wallace and Iverson, they are in perhaps the greatest position of all teams to make a running this offseason and perhaps get a prime big man to already seal a starting lineup for the next few years. Could this be Boozer’s next home, perhaps not but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Utah’s phenomenal big man rotation ends up here. With the emergence of Millsap as a deserving starter, he could be the cheaper but equally effective big man Utah holds on to. This leaves Mr Dumar’s the very real opportunity to go after Okur or Boozer. An interesting point about the 2009 FA’s big man crop is that although they are not as prominent as some of the names in 2010, there are quite a few quality bigs out there that could be signed for a bargain. To me, David Lee stands out amongst the rest as a great possible steal.


3. Chicago
Ah the city that inspired thousands to pick up a basketball and try it. The only reason they rank as low as third is just because it’s simply too hard to predict how they will look next week let alone by the end of the year. But assume for a minute that with the exception of cap buster Larry Hughes, that Paxson plays it safe and keeps his core together, instead hoping to sign that quality big rather than sacrifice assets. With arguably the best 1,2,3 rotation in the NBA, this historical franchise is probably seen as an ideal destination for many of the bigs looking to cash in. The Bulls for years have been struggling to find that big man, and after showing such reluctance to trade away their many valuable pieces, perhaps it’s time to play the open market instead. With a much larger market, this franchise, unlike Detroit, has a much stronger ability to whether this recession and make the big offers. Even if some of the pieces do go away, they have so many that as long as Rose and Deng are kept and a nice signing, the Bulls will already have a very commendable roster.


4. New Jersey
Even though they may be the Brooklyn Nets, the team as a whole has made such progress this year alone, that with steady progress in the following season, it will be hard for a player to not recognize a great opportunity to play alongside a solid 1-2 in Harris, Carter and the emerging Lopez. It’s yet to be seen what further moves will be done, but I have no doubt that they will either add another piece to their core, or we will see some solid progress in YI that the Chinese populace undoubtedly see’s right now. Anyways, even without that addition, the solid guard play will be attractive to any big men to come over and complement them.


5. Miami
Ah Miami, this is one of the franchises, where the city alone has an appeal. How many people would love to call Miami their home, a chance to play for a legend in Riley, and a chance to play for a living super star in Wade. How many people honestly believe he’s going anywhere. Once Marion is moved, or leaves on his own, you will see some solid development with Beasley and steady progress from Chalmers. This team then may become a place of interest for all FA’s, whether you be a point guard, or a centre. Although I’m sure Riley wants to add a great big man like the rest of these teams, I think he would strongly consider another great wing player or point guard.


I think what makes all these teams so interesting is the fact that a lot of these teams have the ability to make the playoffs without any additions. After the Elton Brand fiasco, we all know how important that is to a player. This also seems to bode well for the Raptors as a lot of these teams are out there to find a big man and might be willing to take the gamble with O’Neal for a lack of great quality big men in the league in general. But at the same, it’s just as dangerous for the Raptors in 2010 as teams set their eyes on Bosh, a quality big for the future. But whether you’re Okur, Bosh, Boozer, Stoudamire or Ming, the market looks fantastic for big men and there definitely feels like there will be a few steals out there.

The Raptors: The Key To Success

Another day, another loss, another opportunity missed, another jump shot missed another team getting more than a victory. The Raptors, more than any other team have undoubtedly been successful in one area this season, we are regrettably, the team that sets you straight. Lose to us and it's like a slap in the face, get your sh** together and bring it to your next opponent. Beat us, and give yourself more confidence, more belief, let yourself walk the walk and sleep soundly knowing you set a team that could have been, three steps back. The Hawks game to me was more than a loss for a few reasons, the seams on our team are breaking. It's hard to believe that two seasons ago, Sam Mitchell held high his award, largely due to his ability to build such chemistry so quickly and yet now we see distrusting eyes glare at each other, blaming each other for yet another opportunity squandered.

But as we point the figure on our side, on the other end of the court, a team celebrates. We see a team with renewed confidence, with a swagger, a victory despite key injuries, a team that is better than the sum of its parts, a team that will carry this momentum forward. Time and time again we have seen the Raptors squander a lead and as we shake our heads in disgust, eventually we move on, waiting for the next game with that faint hope that maybe today is the day. How many of us think about the other team, the effects of a stolen game from another teams eyes. Upon closer inspection, it's quite nauseating just to see how our beloved Raps have become the NBA band-aid quick solution for teams.

Of course it all began that faithful day when Vince C***** stepped onto the court. In a game where if we saw the box score, with Bosh and Bargnani combining for more than 60 points, we would immediately think victory, we allowed a comeback of the ages, a desperation three, an alleyoop winning dunk. What was the followup? Like an enraged bull, the Nets carried their momentum forward and charged charge up the standings with basically a two man team. And as their euphoria has worn off, we can now see the effects as they tumble down to reality and as quality teams expose their many weaknesses. It's really too bad we don't play the Nets again, they may need us to make their playoff run.

And then when all hope was lost, then came the rallying cry that called many Raptor fans back from the fence with a victory over our executioners last April, the Orlando Magic. Here we have a young team with undeniable size and talent, but perhaps lack the mental tenacity and focus to maintain top quality play over 82 games. I'm sure you remember reading prior to this atrocious season that nobody mentioned the Magic as contenders, nobody even saw them as elite. They were instead seen as a team on the border, a team who despite their talent and roster, lacked one thing, presence. But never fear, the Raptors are here. As the Magic suited up, I'm sure they saw this game as in the bag and were surprisingly, even to us fans, given a contest. We were able to keep the game competitive and even uncharacteristically gut out a victory! But again, what was the reaction. I seem to remember Stan the man saying something like "We just didn't have the energy." I don't know how the rest of you reacted but my first reaction was, wow, no energy and they still almost won. When the raps have no energy, we lose by 40. When we have some energy, we lose by 20. When we give it our all, we ....still lose. But this was definitely the slap in the face the Magic needed, and since then have rallied onto impressive victories. So impressive that they have by consensus, gained the watchful eye of critics and have joined the elite. I know Bosh and Howard are already great friends, but I'm sure Howard is thankful for having such a caring, giving friend.

And then of course, we have that dreaded back to back against the Celtics. When I first heard of these games coming up, I immediately thought, wow, this is exactly what the Celtics need. The Celtics, being recently tackled off their high horse were in disarray, questioning each other, their swagger, they had lost 4 games in a row, for the first time since this new big three joined forces. We probably could not have faced a mentally weaker Celtic team, but at the same time, we probably could not have faced a more determined Celtic team. I'm sure they recognized this as a golden moment to quench their thirst for victory and get back to their winning ways. Trust KG and company to recognize this opportunity and be able to turn it into not two victories, but five and counting.

You'd be all smiles as well knowing you get to play the Raptors twice.

To me, just seeing that schedule was the beginning of the end for what little confidence the Raptors had restored in themselves. Why? Because even though the game was competitive, you can't help but notice as we swapped two for three, a free throw for two, and a turnover for three, that at the end of the game, we felt good about almost winning. Since when was the standard of Raptor excellence and "feelgoodery" an almost victory. It's nice to say you learn from your mistakes, and can even build on losses, but do we learn? As Kapono travels once again for the billionth time in his career, did he learn? As Bosh hesitates too long again and gets shut down by Noah, does he learn? As Joey clears out space with his off arm and gets called out again, does he learn? To me, these things are ingrained in their muscle memory, we can't really learn, too much of basketball is about reacting and reflexes, the best have the patience and the IQ to think and react, but we are far from the best. To me only one thing is clear, the Raptors have learned one thing this season, how to give the other team what they need. How noble of them, how generous, how patriotic of the Raptors to embrace the Canadian friendliness and give so selflessly to the rest of the NBA. Here's hoping we get Marion. Say what you will about him wanting to be the man, asking for more attention, more lime light, at least at the end of the day, he's a taker.