Maverick Thought

I'll post my thoughts about the Raptors season some other time. Right now, I'm tuned into the playoffs, and other than of course going for the Lakers to win the ring, my favourite player, Dirk Nowitzki, just got a big road win in San Antonio in what I think is the most underrated series in the opening round. That's because my other favourite baller, Manu Ginobili, is injured - otherwise, the Spurs would easily take this series - but because of his absence, it's made it a compelling matchup.

It's anybody's game. Hell, I'm even betting the Mavs take it, but am afraid to get too ahead of myself because poor Dirk and his Mavs have crumbled since that Finals run. Plus, you can never underestimate the Spurs. So, with Ginobili out, the way I see it, its a pretty balancing act which is what makes this series so fun - it could stretch to seven games, which I'm hoping it doesn't, because it'll be in San Antonio, but then again, the last time this happened between these two teams, Dirk made one of the biggest plays, driving down the lane, scoring and getting fouled to eventually win the game/series.

So I was extremely hyped up to see this game tonight. The way I see it, Tony Parker can run circles around anybody, so hopefully Kidd+Terry can somewhat counter him, Duncan and Nowitzki cancel each other out (not in a head to head matchup, just great-players wise), and all of a sudden we're left with anything goes. So, thoughts from Game 1

• Tony Parker, not surprisingly, was penetrating the Mavs to death, why the hell did he stop? The Dallas defense did step it up, but not to the point where Tony Parker-Longoria couldn't keep driving it at will.
  
• Even down 13 when it looked BAD for Dallas, I had hope the Mavs could come back, and did, the best part of it being with Nowitzki on the bench due to foul trouble.
• Jose Calderon? NO, Jose (Juan) Barea! Who the hell saw him having such a strong impact. Tenacious little player, how annoyed was Tony Parker whom Pop had to talk to during a timeout to tell him not to start going one on one and making it personal (I'm assuming he was referring to JJ Barea's scoring)
• Brandon Bass - his body is scary, that crunch time fadeaway on Michael Finley even scarier if you're a Spurs fan
• Matt Bonner's reactions are still hilarious when he gets called for a foul or makes a bad play - looks over at Gregg Popovich scared to death.
  
• Michael Finley's corpse is still deadly - guy still hits threes like its nothing.
  
• Erick Dampier played HARD - props to him. Duncan still had a good game, but the defense of Damp was solid - about as well as you could play TD.
  
• Speaking of Duncan - no one uses the glass like him. Those two jumpers in Dampier's face were a thing of beauty, he almost willed it in, hitting the rim and in.
  
• Really sad to see Manu on the bench, must be killing him not being on the court. Although like I said, I don't it'd be much of a series if he were playing.
• Glad to see Kidd start to post up Parker all the way to the paint - gives me horrendous flashbacks of when he did that to TJ Ford in the playoffs and just killed us.
• Josh Howard always surprises me. He's one of those players that you know is really good, but still surprises you :s
• How healthy is Duncan? We know he's not 100%.
  
• I know Dirk was in foul trouble, so next game he has to go at Bonner, Gooden, or whoever the hell is trying to check him, just as Hubie Brown said.
• Speaking of whom, Hubie Brown adds so much to the games - I hope he lives 20 more years so we can hear his break-em-down-to-the-tee style analysis.
  
• Rick Carlisle, for some reason, looks to me like he could star as an older Patrick Bateman in a future version of American Psycho. Don't ask me why.
• Quote: "We're a humble team, but we're hungry." - Rick Carlisle
  
• Lookin' forward to Game 2.

Forget Trading Bosh, Whose Going To Steal Him?

It’s every general managers worst nightmare, a talented individual, leaving without anything in return. Unfortunately, in some cases, whether it be hesitation to pull the trigger, a lack of cap, or an economic recession (hint hint), players often leave to where the grass is greener.


I’m sure many of you have at least once read one of Paul Johnson’s “The Five”. I remembered reading his article on the top five FA’s for the famous 2010 offseason. This got me thinking, forget the best five, any fool can recognize the best names of the NBA, lets talk about where they will go! Who has a realistic chance of stealing a franchise player, whether it be this summer, or the next.


Before I delve into it, there are a few variables to consider, but for the most part, here are the key deciding factors, whose on contract, both staff and players, what city do you call home, ownership, and of course, the availability of money and how much is really available after you resign part of your core . Look no further than Portland, many of its contracts will run off the books prior to the best FA crop in history, but how much of that money will go to keeping their core together. Finally, of course these should be taken with a grain of salt, who knows what could happen in the next month, who knows what can happen at any time really, a bad trade there, a critical injury, anything can happen.


So here it is, the top five “thieves” on the market.


1. Dallas
With all this talk of New York clearing cap, teams struggling to shed contracts Dallas’s positioning for a great FA haul have largely been kept secret. Perhaps because in the media, they are just the team with an enigmatic owner who gave up a youthful all star for a quick win right now fix but to players, this may be the most attractive option out there. How many players out there do you think feel the frustration knowing that their owners refuse to spend the money that breeds success. With Cuban, you may get someone who is perhaps too involved, but at least you know that you have someone who values winning as much as you do, someone who feels the stings of losses as much as you do. And moving on past ownership, you can find comfort in a great coaching staff and a solid core. The opportunity to know you can make a run alongside an already potent duo in Nowitzki and the JET should be appeal enough. Raptor fans watch out for Dallas. Even if the Raptors made it to the second round this year and the next, the chance to play for a team dedicated to success, 2 proven players and in front of your home crowd may be simply too much to pass up on.


2. Detroit
Detroit may be in the most unfortunate situation of all the NBA franchises. Why? Because they have the talent, the GM savvy but perhaps, not the money. I have to believe that Detroit’s ability to play in the market will really depend on how the recovery of the larger market goes. With a city plagued by the suffering automobile industry, they really can’t be that secure in their financial stability. With an already commendable core of RIP, Prince, Maxiell and I’d have to assume a resigned Stuckey, they may be so talented that they may not need a marquee signing. But with the cap relief from Wallace and Iverson, they are in perhaps the greatest position of all teams to make a running this offseason and perhaps get a prime big man to already seal a starting lineup for the next few years. Could this be Boozer’s next home, perhaps not but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Utah’s phenomenal big man rotation ends up here. With the emergence of Millsap as a deserving starter, he could be the cheaper but equally effective big man Utah holds on to. This leaves Mr Dumar’s the very real opportunity to go after Okur or Boozer. An interesting point about the 2009 FA’s big man crop is that although they are not as prominent as some of the names in 2010, there are quite a few quality bigs out there that could be signed for a bargain. To me, David Lee stands out amongst the rest as a great possible steal.


3. Chicago
Ah the city that inspired thousands to pick up a basketball and try it. The only reason they rank as low as third is just because it’s simply too hard to predict how they will look next week let alone by the end of the year. But assume for a minute that with the exception of cap buster Larry Hughes, that Paxson plays it safe and keeps his core together, instead hoping to sign that quality big rather than sacrifice assets. With arguably the best 1,2,3 rotation in the NBA, this historical franchise is probably seen as an ideal destination for many of the bigs looking to cash in. The Bulls for years have been struggling to find that big man, and after showing such reluctance to trade away their many valuable pieces, perhaps it’s time to play the open market instead. With a much larger market, this franchise, unlike Detroit, has a much stronger ability to whether this recession and make the big offers. Even if some of the pieces do go away, they have so many that as long as Rose and Deng are kept and a nice signing, the Bulls will already have a very commendable roster.


4. New Jersey
Even though they may be the Brooklyn Nets, the team as a whole has made such progress this year alone, that with steady progress in the following season, it will be hard for a player to not recognize a great opportunity to play alongside a solid 1-2 in Harris, Carter and the emerging Lopez. It’s yet to be seen what further moves will be done, but I have no doubt that they will either add another piece to their core, or we will see some solid progress in YI that the Chinese populace undoubtedly see’s right now. Anyways, even without that addition, the solid guard play will be attractive to any big men to come over and complement them.


5. Miami
Ah Miami, this is one of the franchises, where the city alone has an appeal. How many people would love to call Miami their home, a chance to play for a legend in Riley, and a chance to play for a living super star in Wade. How many people honestly believe he’s going anywhere. Once Marion is moved, or leaves on his own, you will see some solid development with Beasley and steady progress from Chalmers. This team then may become a place of interest for all FA’s, whether you be a point guard, or a centre. Although I’m sure Riley wants to add a great big man like the rest of these teams, I think he would strongly consider another great wing player or point guard.


I think what makes all these teams so interesting is the fact that a lot of these teams have the ability to make the playoffs without any additions. After the Elton Brand fiasco, we all know how important that is to a player. This also seems to bode well for the Raptors as a lot of these teams are out there to find a big man and might be willing to take the gamble with O’Neal for a lack of great quality big men in the league in general. But at the same, it’s just as dangerous for the Raptors in 2010 as teams set their eyes on Bosh, a quality big for the future. But whether you’re Okur, Bosh, Boozer, Stoudamire or Ming, the market looks fantastic for big men and there definitely feels like there will be a few steals out there.

Rumors, Rumors, Rumors.

Any fool who watches the raptors lose time and time again can all agree on one thing. Jamario Moon as the starting small forward is barely acceptable on a D League level. In fact, our perimiter play in general is perhaps one of the most lacking in the NBA. As the raptors tumble through the standings and as the 76'ers pull it together in the absence of Brand, the window of opportunity to claim a playoff spot is dwindling and the pressure to deliver a trade hightens.

During this economic recession, basketball and all pro sports take an interesting turn. How valuable is it to make the playoffs? Teams like Miami, New Jersey and Milwaukee, currently in the playoff hunt have to evaluate and wonder, is it worth it? With salary cap killers, Carter, Marion, Jefferson and Redd, an owner must be wondering whether a first round exit is worth all this money in troubled times. In my opinion, this recession makes trade talk all the more interesting as financial motives begins to take a higher precedence in trade motives.

What does this mean to the Raptors? Despite our famous stingy ownership, the Raptors are one of the few teams in the NBA who can afford to have salary busters. Being in a strong market, filled with corporate sponsorship, and a historical NHL franchise, they are one of the few teams who don't have to worry as much about breaking even and can contemplate taking on heavy contracts.

For the Raptors, we can discount a trade with the Bucks simply because, as I believe, our best trade bait is ONeal and with Bogut signed to a long term deal, they don't need Oneal there. But we can look at other teams looking to cement their core, give playing time to the young and shed some contracts. So who do the Raptors have a shot with? Just by looking at team situations, salary situations, and young talent, and players the Raptors may actually want, I think we can fairly easily narrow down possible trading partners to the Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Bobcats, Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat. These teams made the cut mainly because these teams would be interested in Oneal and have viable players to sendback and help clog up our deficiencies.

These four seem to be the most viable deals for the Raptors to do in return for Oneal, so lets take a deeper look into the benefits of each deal.

Dallas: Gets a great low post player to complete Dirk. In my opinion has a much better chance of working over the Bosh Oneal duo. Before he came I always felt that Oneal had a better shot of coexisting with Bargnani because that three point threat needs to be there.Not to mention this deal lets them dish their publicity nightmare Howard and also gives him the fresh start he needs. To make this deal viable, the expiring contract of Stackhouse would have to be thrown in as well. Given that he has seen a reduced role with Dallas given the emergence of Barea, they are also helping to solve their minute and chemistry issues. It is also of importance that in the west, they are going to need a solid defensive bigman to contain almost every team in the West. Dallas also doesn't lose any financial flexibility as the length of the contracts are the same.

Raptors: Giving the abundance of minutes at their positions, and Stackhouse's leadership off the bench, this may look like a simple financial inclusion, but his effect could be extremely influential on the rest of the bench. Both these players will look at this team as an opportuntiy, a fresh start and a chance to still be on a team that has a chance. In Howard we will find a solid all around sf, who more importantly, can create his own shot and be given the ball in late game situations. Having the team option for Howard may prove important in keeping Bosh with the Raptors if this trade works out.

*Note: For this trade, another player may have to be involved, possibly a Moon for Green swap.

Heat: Oneal round two. This duo may not be as powerful as the Superman Flash combo but it certainly would be a scary duo to face. With Wade unstopabable this year and able to get to the rim at will, he could be the perimiter play Oneal needs to regain his touch. Without any other credible bigs on the floor, this could also give him the room he needs to operate down low. An understated aspect of this trade could be the minutes it opens up for Beasley to have a more prominent, stable role and gain some valuable minutes to learn and get back into ROY contention. Again we see the immense cap relief in 2010 to keep wade and who knows what else.

Raptors: Of all the possible options, this may be the easiest to do, but the least helpful. In Marion we certainly get someone to address our needs of a defensive stop, but the question is what can he bring to the offensive table. Do the raps really want another player who can't create his own shot. I can't imagine any team at any time giving the ball to Marion to make the last play. However, his knowledge and ability on the fast break may be what the Raps need to learn how to actually run effectively. I think the success of this trade hinges on Bargnani's ability to keep this run going. If he maintains himself as a 20 point threat, it may not matter what Marion brings to the offensive table and his offensive putbacks and few fast break points may be all we need. I dont think the Raps really will be getting anyone else of value to make contracts match. With the emergence of Roko, do we really want Banks to clog up pg minutes? Getting Wright may be valuable if he can provide a consistent role.

Charlotte: They may be able to get rid of the NBA player with what I assume must be the record for most concussions. They get a great defensive and offensive low post weapon in ONeal who will definitely fit in well with Larry Brown's System. The availability of this deal however has dwindled in my mind as they already made moves to acquire Boris Diaw and recently Diop. With Okafor on the roster, they may be reluctant to add another big and may be in fact more keen on acquiring a strong guard. I would think that if a player of Oneal's stature was acquired, it could mean another big is on the move in Charlotte or they may just like to keep Diop and Diaw incase Oneal's injury history follows him. I do think however with the acquisition of Oneal, Charlotte could boast perhaps one of the best post defenses in the NBA and with Raja on the wing, it may not matter how difficult it is for them to score.

Raptors: For this deal to be a success, I think a lot of it hinges on who the second peice is. If we were to receive Felton, this could be a steal. We would garner a solid pg/sg rotation and our whole at Sf would certainly be filled but at the same time let's not forget however that charlotte struggled to score with these two players as key weapons. I think it would be safe to assume they would be no better for Toronto's offense. As Raptor fans cringe when Solomon and Moon take their jump shots, do we really want two more players who have a penchant for bad shots? This deal to me is the riskiest of the possible ones out there, these players could thrive, or it could be the beginning of the end.

Bulls: The final deal to discuss. It's almost definite that one of the pieces involved will be Nocioni, and the success of this deal will largely depend on who those second and third pieces are. With Rose claiming the spotlight, Hinrich's days as the pg could be numbered. As the Bulls have searched for a low post threat for years, and after missing out on Gasol, this could be their chance to add that missing piece. A core of Rose, Gordon, Deng, Oneal and with the progress of Noah and Thomas, this would be a scary team for anyone to play. If I was Paxson, I would have to consider this deal greatly.

Raptors: I think perhaps the most important element of this trade is the fact that we would be getting three players back. With Hinrich, Nocioni and perhaps a thrown in Sefolasha, although their are no stars, we would be contributing greatly to our depth, our bench, and I believe our attitude. Nocioni is one of the most hard nosed players in the NBA and in all three of those players, we would be getting players with defensive mind sets. To build on my last article, I think they would be great leaders for our bench as well. With Calderon, Parker, Nocioni, Bosh, Barganin and Hinrich leading our bench, I think that's the biggest improvement our roster could see by only losing one player. We solve our SF and backup PG/SG holes in one swift move. Who knows, maybe we could sucker Paxson into taking Will off our hands as well.

I love the Bulls and Dallas the deals the most, but I think the best part of all of these deals, is that everyone's a winner. Here's hoping GM's agree with me!